ITNOW

🇮🇹 Nowcasting Italian Quarterly Gross Domestic Product

This initiative provides nowcasts and backcasts for quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP, 2020 chain-linked) growth on a monthly basis.

Further details on the methodology and the historical nowcast series are available at the end of the page.

📊 Quarterly Growth Nowcast Density (Last Update: Jun, 2026)

Figure 1: Kernel density estimate of the latest Italian quarterly nominal GDP growth nowcasts in 2020 chain-linked values. Full corresponds to the time-varying Bates-Granger combination using the full model space, while Median corresponds to the median nowcast. This density describes the cross-sectional distribution of current model nowcasts and is not the source of the empirical prediction interval reported below.

📈 Historical Quarterly Growth Nowcasts

Figure 2: History of the Italian quarterly nominal GDP growth nowcasts using the full model-space Bates-Granger combination and realizations in 2020 chain-linked values. Prior to the latest nowcast, pseudo-real-time nowcasts are displayed. The shaded band is a 90% empirical prediction interval: at each date, the 5th and 95th percentiles of the historical full-combination nowcast errors are added to that date’s full-combination nowcast. The interval is therefore not the cross-model distribution of current forecasts and is not mechanically centered around the cross-sectional median nowcast.

Table 1: Latest full model-space Bates-Granger nowcast and 90% empirical prediction interval bounds. The bounds are obtained from historical full-combination nowcast errors, not from the cross-sectional distribution of current model nowcasts (see Figure 2).

🧭 Reference Quarter Nowcast (Last Update: Q2-2026)

Note: This section is not updated during the quarter; it is intended solely for end-of-quarter nowcasts.

Figure 3: History of the Italian quarterly nominal GDP level nowcasts using the full model-space Bates-Granger combination and realizations in 2020 chain-linked values (billions of euros). Prior to the latest nowcast, pseudo-real-time nowcasts are displayed.

Table 2: Nowcasted QoQ and YoY growth rates, carry-over annual effect, and GDP level from the full model-space Bates-Granger combination (see Figure 3). Note that the carry-over annual effect is unavailable for the first quarter of the year, and coincides with the YoY % Change in the last quarter.

🧮 Methodological Note

Nowcasting methods aim to provide the general public — such as policymakers, media, and investors — with real-time assessments of key economic indicators that would otherwise be subject to significant publication delays. These methods leverage higher-frequency data to forecast indicators that are released less frequently.

For example, the quarterly Italian GDP figure is published one month after the reference quarter. This means that the Q1 figure (covering January, February, and March) is only released at the beginning of April. However, industrial production — which is a strong predictor of the GDP — is released monthly and can therefore be used to nowcast GDP.

📜 Historical Nowcasts

Click here to download the historical nowcast series. Note that nowcasts prior to October 2024 are excluded, as they were derived from an out-of-sample exercise.

The latest ISTAT release (Q2:2026, preliminary estimate of GDP) can be found here.

An Italian economic calendar is available here.